The Presidential Campaign Has Begun

It has been quiet in the presidential campaign since all of the leading Republican challengers dropped out of the race, all but assuring Mitt Romney his party's nomination. But recently, things have slowly started to heat up again. I've noticed a deluge of Super-PAC ads on Hulu (as an aside, I highly recommend The Practice for fans of legal drama) and even a few have started to trickle in on broadcast TV. A few friends of mine have even reported getting Pro-Obama robocalls. The calm is over, and we're getting ready to see the surge of what will be the most expensive presidential election in the history of our country. So what should we expect to see, and what's going to happen?

The early ads seem to indicate that this, like most elections with an incumbent president, will be a referendum on the first four years of President Obama. This election will be a return to President Reagan's famous question: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" In this case, the answer is much more difficult than it was in 1980, so let's go through the various measures proposed by President Reagan (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loBe0WXtts8):

Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago?

This one is relatively easy, and we have an empirical answer to this questions. There is less unemployment than there was four years ago. If this is the focus of the election, President Obama wins easily.

Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago?

For many Americans, the answer is no. Wages have basically stagnated, the price of gas briefly approached $4 a gallon (but has gone down recently). In the face of this stagnation, we've also seen moderate inflation and, at best, shaky consumer confidence. If this is the focus of the election, Governor Romney may be able to defeat the incumbent president.

Is America as respected throughout the world as it was?

I know Gallup polls on this question, and I think the answer is that we've improved in this regard over the four years, but quite frankly I don't think people care about perceptions along these lines in 2012. Maybe if something dramatic happened that would change, but this won't be an important question in this elcetion. If somehow this becomes important, I think President Obama wins, but on the other hand the only way this could become important is if it takes a massive shift downward which would benefit Governor Romney. 

Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were four years ago?

I'm of two minds on this one. President Obama has obviously made huge strides in terms of killing terrorists. Beyond the death of Osama bin Laden, the military has killed any number of top Al-Qaeda operatives over the last four years, and he has been incredibly successful on this account. On the other hand, I can't really see that this will be more than a secondary issue. The electorate is focused on domestic issues and the economy, so I think this will help at the margins but I can't see the Democrats turning this issue into a big one. 

I'll leave you all with the words of President Reagan that I think will define this election. It's going to be a matter of both sides trying to frame the election in terms that get voters to the right conclusion: 

And if you answer all of those questions yes, why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have.